Fast, frequent, and climate friendly commuter rail for Kāpiti and Horowhenua
Transmission Gully and the expressway projects between Mackays Crossing and Levin are quite literally driving a doubling of population growth in Kāpiti and Horowhenua. To meet this growth, especially with increasing numbers of daily commuters heading into Wellington City, it’s vital that fast, frequent, and climate friendly commuter rail services are extended to keep up with demand.
The case for commuter rail
Between 2013 and 2018 nearly 10,000 more people moved to the Kāpiti Coast and Horowhenua, more than doubling the previous growth rates for the region. This growth helped contribute to a more than 9 percent increase in morning peak commuter rail growth on the Kāpiti train line in 2019. Since 2016, there has been a 60 percent increase in boardings and alightments from trains at Waikanae alone.
This growth has largely been driven by people from Wellington, Porirua, and the Hutt Valley seeking relatively more affordable housing, infrastructure projects like Transmission Gully and the expressways improving north-south connectivity, and the irresistible lure of our fantastic relaxed beach and rural lifestyles and naturally better climate.
In the next 30 years, Kāpiti and Horowhenua are set to nearly double their populations, going from around 90,000 people in 2018 to nearly 170,000 by 2050 based off current growth rates. Paraparaumu will be a city in its own right, with Levin not far behind it.
As a result of this growth, our roads are at bursting point every rush hour. Friday nights and holiday periods are particularly bad, while morning peak hour trains are frequently full from Paekākāriki forcing people to stand for nearly an hour into Wellington. The opening of Transmission Gully and Peka Peka to Ōtaki will alleviate some of these issues temporarily as commuters experiment with driving into Wellington again, but the reprieve will be short-lived as increasing congestion in Wellington City and a lack of carparking will see commuters return to commuter trains once more.
The completion of Transmission Gully in particular will remove the final barrier that held back many from considering relocating north - the old and vulnerable coastal section of State Highway 1 between Pukerua Bay and Paekākāriki - and as a result we can expect to see the current high rates of population growth continue. Likewise, the recently announced funding of the Ōtaki to north of Levin expressway will open up Horowhenua as it nears completion in 2029.
This isn’t just about the Kāpiti Coast and Horowhenua either. With Palmerston North and Manawatu growing strongly too, the campaign has a plan right up to 2050 that will enable high speed rail services between Wellington and Palmerston North.
We can’t keep adding roads, especially as we look for ways to lower our fossil fuel emissions to combat climate change. That’s why we need the Government and our regional councils to live up to their rhetoric and demonstrate their vision and ambition by committing to make significant investments in improving commuter rail services and the rail network in Kāpiti and Horowhenua.
The 2020 - 2050 vision
The plan to improve commuter rail services has been broken into four phases. To be successful, the entire plan would need to be underpinned by a significant investment in upgrading both the capacity and capabilities of the rail network in the lower North Island to accommodate additional services, including Wellington Station itself. The date of 2050 listed above are the latest by which the entire package should be rolled out, though ideally it would all be much sooner and the plan could easily be further accelerated to achieve that.
PHASE ONE: Hybrid trains for the Capital Connection
Estimated cost: Approximately $762 million (cost of hybrid train units and associated track and infrastructure work across both the Manawatu and Wairarapa lines)
The Capital Connection is a vital link providing Palmerston North, Shannon, Levin, and Ōtaki with their only reliable public transport service into Wellington. Currently it only operates once a day in each direction - a morning service to Wellington and an evening service to Palmerston North, which greatly limits its attractiveness for commuters.
The Government announced in January 2020 that they would be funding the refurbishment of old Auckland Transport carriages to enable the Capital Connection to keep operating in the short-term. However, these carriages are of a similar age and design to the existing Capital Connection carriages, meaning the refurbishment is just a stop gap measure that won’t add any extra services or additional capacity to the service.
Greater Wellington Regional Council (GWRC) currently has a proposal for new tri-mode hybrid trains that could run on overhead lines to Waikanae, then switch to diesel, battery, or hydrogen power. Hybrid trains would offer two peak hour services in each of the morning and evening peaks and two services in the middle of the day. Currently though, their schedule is for these to not start on the Palmerston North line until after 2027, which will put significant pressure on not only the Capital Connection, but also existing commuter rail services and commuter carparking in Waikanae.
PHASE TWO: Electrification and double tracking to Ōtaki
Estimated cost: 2013 estimate was approximately $50-$60 million for the rail network and $60-$80 million for new upgraded Matangi units with toilet facilities or $300m for full double tracking with new units, including double tracking just south of Waikanae station. The Government has funded a business case investigating electrification north of Waikanae which will have significantly higher costs due to inflation since 2013)
Extending the electrification and double tracking of Wellington’s metropolitan rail network from Waikanae to Ōtaki has been on the cards for a decade. Under the current regional package sitting alongside Let’s Get Wellington Moving this extension isn’t planned until some time after 2039. With roading projects driving strong population and commuter growth in the north of Kāpiti and south Horowhenua waiting 20 years (if not more) for full commuter rail to reach Ōtaki isn’t good enough.
In looking at extending the network to Ōtaki in 2013, GWRC estimated that a new service would only attract 250 new passengers a day. Since then Kāpiti and Horowhenua have experienced rapid growth, especially in Ōtaki and Levin, and commuters driving to Waikanae to catch trains into Wellington are clogging up roads around the town centre.
It’s clearly a case of when, not if, the commuter rail network is extended to Ōtaki, and to ensure it doesn’t lag behind growth it needs to be completed no later than 2030, but ideally as soon as possible.
To put the $120 - $140 million cost in comparison, the Hamilton to Papakuia twice daily commuter service which will start in June 2020 will cost between $90 - $100 million and is only targeting to carry 250 passengers each way by the third year of operation.
PHASE THREE: Electrify and double tracking to Levin
Estimated cost: No costings yet available
The next logical step for extending the Wellington metropolitan rail network north is through electrification and double tracking to Levin. As the Wellington region develops its spacial plan to guide the next generation of development, Levin and the southern Horowhenua is now considered to be functionally part of the Wellington housing and employment market thanks to the increasing number of daily commuters choosing to make their home there.
This will only increase with the recently announced funding of the four lane Ōtaki to north of Levin expressway. Likewise, nearby areas like Foxton and Foxton Beach are enjoying growth from commuters working in both Wellington and Palmerston North
In the short to medium term a significant amount of commuter growth from Levin could be met through the hybrid trains from Phase One of the Kāpiti-Horowhenua Commuter Rail Campaign Plan, especially as commuters from Ōtaki switch on to the metro network when it extends there. However, longer term there will be a need to bring Levin fully into the commuter rail network to meet growth.
PHASE FOUR: Electrify and double tracking to Palmerston North for rapid commuter rail services
Estimated cost: No costings yet available
Looking much further ahead, there is an huge opportunity across New Zealand to develop rapid rail services that could achieve speeds of around 160km/h. One such proposal has already been put forward by Greater Auckland for Regional Rapid Rail for the “golden triangle” of Auckland, Waikato, and the Bay of Plenty.
While the lower North Island doesn’t offer quite the same levels of population or density as the upper North Island does, the generally flat and largely straight rail network through Manawatu, Horowhenua, and Kāpiti provides an ideal opportunity for an ambitious and visionary investment in providing rapid rail services.
Palmerston North and Manawatu are experiencing their fastest growth rates in 30 years, and there’s a need to provide far better rail services along this crucial north-south axis.
Instead of taking two and half hours to drive from Palmerston North to Wellington, imagine it taking little more than half that time through a rapid train service?
This type of future-focused investment in our rail network, especially through electrification and double tracking, will help enable the type fast, frequent, and low-carbon transport options New Zealand needs in the 21st century.
More about the Kāpiti-Horowhenua Commuter Rail Campaign
The Kāpiti-Horowhenua Commuter Rail Campaign was launched in February 2020 by Gwynn Compton, a Kāpiti Coast resident, commuter rail campaigner, and Districtwide Councillor on the Kāpiti Coast District Council. In June 2019 as part of his campaign during the local authority elections, Gwynn setup a petition for the extension of commuter rail to Ōtaki through the electrification and double tracking of the rail network north of Waikane.
Gwynn started the Kāpiti-Horowhenua Commuter Rail Campaign in response to the Government’s failure to announce any funding for any new rolling stock to provide additional capacity and extra services in the lower North Island, or any extension of commuter rail to Ōtaki as part of their “New Zealand Upgrade Programme”.